Consumer confidence in Lebanon recorded an impressive rise since last quarter, according to the latest Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). The Consumer Confidence Index, a quarterly survey conducted by the Middle East’s number one job site Bayt.com in conjunction with research specialists YouGov Siraj, found that consumer confidence in Lebanon rose by10.1 points since last December.
Qatar recorded the largest drop moving down the index by5 points. KSA and Lebanon recorded the largest increases, moving up the index by10.7 and10.1 points respectively. In Morocco it dropped by3.6 points.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a measure of consumer expectations and satisfaction of various elements of the economy including inflation, job opportunities and the cost of living.
As part of the CCI, respondents are asked questions about their personal financial circumstances and how they compare to the same period last year. Overall,35% of the region’s respondents say their financial position is the same as last year and a quarter,25%, say it has gotten better. In Lebanon,17% say they are better off than last year,42% say they are in the same position and32% say they are in a worse position than last year.
Among the countries surveyed,38% of respondents Oman say they are doing better than last year, the highest percentage recorded in the region, whereas in Jordan only19% felt their financial position is better than last year, the lowest percentage recorded in the region.
“The specific countries included in this CCI wave seem to be relatively stable as we are seeing them display similar figures each quarter indicating the after-effects of the recent global economic crisis may be calming down somewhat, resulting in a period of recovery and growth. It will be exciting to see if this sentiment can be maintained till the next quarter and beyond, and whether the region can reach a long-term period of true stability,” commented Amer Zureikat, VP Sales at Bayt.com
In addition to financial position, consumer confidence is assessed by asking the respondents about their level of optimism towards the future, which forms the Consumer Expectations Index (CEI). The countries varied widely in terms of their consumer expectations.
Lebanon recorded an increase of12.2 points since the last quarter with Morocco reporting a slight decrease of0.1 points.
On the whole, respondents are expecting to be in a better financial position next year. Overall,48% of respondents believe that their personal financial position will be better next year. By contrast, just6% of the region’s respondents believe that their financial position will become worse. In Lebanon,42% of respondents believe that their personal finances will be better a year from now, compared to just11% that believe they will become worse. Most optimistic that their personal financial position will be better in a year’s time are respondents in Oman and KSA with56% confirming this statement.
Respondents also remain largely optimistic that their country’s economy will be better in a year’s time. Overall,51% say that their country’s economy will be better,17% say it will remain the same, and12% say it will become worse. Respondents in Oman are the most positive about the expected improvements in their country’s economy, with67% stating things will be better. Respondents in Lebanon are most pessimistic about their country’s economy a year from now;32% say that it will become worse.
Respondents were also asked what they feel their propensity to consume is, as part of the Propensity to Consume Index (PCI). Qatar saw a substantial drop of22.2 points, the highest in the region. At the other end of the scale, Kuwait recorded the largest rise, moving up the index by1.9 points. Lebanon recorded a slight drop of0.3 points.
Asked whether they would invest in property, the respondents largely agree that they will not. The trend continues from the previous quarter with a majority of respondents (62%) stating they are not interested in making any investment in property. Within Lebanon,69% say they will not be buying any property. Of those wishing to purchase a property in Lebanon,59% say they are likely to opt for a new property.
“Gauging consumer opinion is a powerful tool for revealing the current attitudes and sentiments about the business and economic conditions in a specific country and to see how these change overtime,” commented Sundip Chahal, Chief Operating Officer of YouGov Siraj.
Another contributor to the CCI is the Employee Confidence Index (ECI), which measures the attitudes of respondents to the local job market, in terms of their satisfaction towards the availability of jobs and their satisfaction with their salary.
Lebanon increased by4.5 points while Bahrain showed the biggest increase as it moved up the index by12.6 points..
When asked whether they believe more jobs will be available in a year’s time, respondents are roughly divided:38% say more will be available,24% say the job situation will remain the same and19% say the availability of jobs will be worse. In Lebanon,18% believe the availability of jobs will get better while31% of respondents believe the availability of jobs will become worse.
In terms of salaries and whether they have kept pace with the cost of living, as in the previous wave, the majority feel that they have not kept pace with the cost of living, with59% agreeing that there is a disparity, while just16% agree they have increased inline with the cost of living, and5% say they have increased more than the cost of living.
“We conduct our quarterly Middle East Consumer Confidence Index Survey in order to chart how consumer confidence levels are changing as the region goes through different economic cycles, and faces the challenges and pressures wrought by economic trends and events across the globe. This seeks to provide all stakeholders, from regional businesses to local organisations and HR professionals with up-to-date information that is both relevant and reliable as a snapshot of current market trends, concluded Zureikat.
Data for the March2011 Consumer Confidence Index Survey was collected online between14 March and3 April2011 with8,079 respondents from the UAE, KSA, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria and Pakistan. Males and females aged over18 years old, of all nationalities, were included in the survey.